Saturday, July 28, 2012

The Polls are NOT Looking Good for Mittens and it's Not Too Late to Nominate Ron Paul

While it's early in the presidential campaign season and the RNC and DNC national conventions are still a month away, it's not too late for Republicans to change their minds and nominate the only Republican who can defeat Obama - Ron Paul!

In 2008, Obama won 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173. That's a total blowout. The gamblers at Intrade, the online gambling company, predicted Obama would win with 364 electoral votes. Intrade was way more accurate than the pundits and pollsters, as noted by the New York Times.

Bettors Beat Pundits

Four years later, it's unlikely that Obama will win by such a whopper of a margin in his bid for reelection, if he wins at all. However, the prospects are excellent that Obama could starve off a Romney victory.

Right now the Intrade bettors are giving Obama a 57.4% probability of winning and Romney a 40.5.

The Real Clear Politics average has Obama up by 1.3 but the polls are all over the place.  In any event, the national polls are practically meaningless and what is important is what happens in the critical swing states.  The 2012 president election outcome will be entirely dependent on 6-8 critical swing states.  The top pundits dissect the polls and focus on the electoral count in the individual states.  Three of the top pundits are Nate Silver (New York Times), Larry Sabato (Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Stuart Rothenberg (Rothenberg Political Report).

Nate Silver has Obama winning with 294 electoral votes to Romney's 244 and gives Obama a 67.4% probability of winning to Romney's 32.6.  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, is here.

Larry Sabato has Obama with 247 electoral votes to Romney's 206, with 85 toss-ups.  Sabato's analysis and maps are here.

Stuart Rothenberg has Obama with 237 electoral votes to Romney's 206, with 95 toss-up.  Rothenberg's analysis is here.

Many states are so reliably blue or red that the outcome is a given.  Once the election kicks into high gear, however, the analysis will intensely concentrate on the following swing states with 100 electoral votes.

Florida             29 RCP average have Obama up by 6
Ohio                18 RCP averages have Obama up by 5
North Carolina 15 RCP averages have Romney up by .4
Virginia            13 RCP averages have Obama up by 1.2
Wisconsin       10  RCP averages have Obama up by 6
Colorado           9 RCP averages have Obama up by 3
Nevada             6 RCP averages have Obama up by 5.3
New Hampshire 4 RCP averages have Obama up by 3


Romney is only ahead in one swing state and by less than half a point!

At this juncture, things aren't looking good at all for the Republican Party based on the polls, the pundits and Intrade.

To make matters worse, Romney had a disastrous trip to London and got badly panned by the Brits and their media.


  1. The GOP keeps doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results!

    Romney couldn't even beat McCain so how do they think he can beat the Obama Machine?

    Only the Ron Paul Army can defeat Obama by taking away Obama independent votes.

    The GOP are fools.

  2. Ron Paul would beat Obama, I wish old school Republicans would see this!

  3. The whole thing is a joke. Romney isn't intended to win just as McCain was not intended to win.

    Ron Paul was an unexpected fly in the ointment...perhaps this fly will take wing! He gets my vote.

  4. I'm still hoping for a miracle in Tampa!

  5. I'm with you Judy Morris, looking for a miracle in Tampa as well!
    Ron Paul is our hope!

  6. If Ron Paul isn't the nominee, I hope the GOP crashed and burns in the general election. We've taken over the state GOP machines in IA, MN, ME and NV. We need to continue to work to takeover the GOP county by county and state by state. The Revolution continues.


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